To that end, it needs to estimate the likely demand of the rail services on offer and the revenues that can be generated. The rail services in question are passenger services and freight services.
Demand for passenger services is thought to depend on two major factors; the Train Travel Propensity index (TTP, an aggregate measure of a number of factors that influence passenger demand) and changes in the general economic environment, usually measured as changes in the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Data for those two factors together with the realised passenger demand over the past 5 years is given in table 1.
Demand for freight services is more straightforward in this particular line; an automotive company based on the central Midlands has a contract with the incumbent train operating company that absorbs almost all of the lines’ freight capacity; the contract expires in 15 years from now and Midlands Rail intents to honour the agreement as it currently stands. The freight demand over the past 5 years is also given in table 1.
Table 1: Historic rails services demand
|Year||Quarter||Passengers||Train Travel Propensity (TTP)||GDP change (%)||Freight Tonnage (000s)|
The first goal of Midlands Rail is to create a forecast of demand for passenger and freight services (freight tonnage transported) for the next 5 years, under three scenarios; Base, High demand and Low demand:
The forecast values for both the High and Low demand scenarios can be calculated by applying the following percentage changes to demand values and possible explanatory factors of the Base Scenario:
Table 1: Uplift parameters to Base values for the Low and High scenarios
|High Demand||Low Demand|
|Year||TTP||GDP (%)||Freight||TTP||GDP (%)||Freight|
Note: For GDP, replace the base assumption with the one provided in this table.
Midlands Rail second goal is to estimate the likely revenue under these scenarios and use this information in selecting the optimal strategy to adopt for the Year 6 to Year 10 period. To do so, it estimated that the average ticket price per passenger is £34 and that the revenue generated per thousand tonnes of freight is £310 (all values are in real prices, meaning that inflation is already taken into account). The company also identified that the line is currently close to maximum capacity. As the situation currently stands, the line cannot serve more than 30,000 passengers and 2,550,000 tonnes of freight per quarter and any demand above these limits will be unmet and thus generate no revenue (the passenger and freight capacity constraints are independent of each other). Due to these capacity constraints, Midlands Rail is considering three possible courses of action:
In all instances, the cost of capital of Midlands Rail is 0.52% per quarter.
Additionally, Midlands Rail would also like to explore the sensitivity of the initial results to the following changes:
The analysis required for this assessment can be divided into three parts. First, you need to create a model that forecasts passenger and freight demand for the different scenarios, using all the relevant information provided by the case study. Secondly, you need to utilise (and adjust when necessary) the demand forecasts in order to estimate the likely revenues for the three options that Midlands Rail is considering, again taking into account the different demand scenarios. Thirdly, you need to make adjustments to your primary data as necessary and carry out the required sensitivity analysis.
This assignment has two outputs: the Excel model that you used to generate the required forecasts and explore the decision problem, and a report that summarises your findings.
Of the two, the output that carries the most weight is the Excel model. As well as being factually correct, the model should ideally be clearly labelled, have a good ‘flow’ and a clear audit trail. Remember to use best practice (clear formatting, label your inputs and outputs, don’t be afraid to add notes, no hardcoded values, document your assumptions and your logic, keep your data separate from your calculations, have a separate area to document important outputs).
The report should either be a Word document or a PowerPoint presentation (I have no preference). The written output should describe and analyse the forecasting and decision problem, describe your modelling process and the criteria you used for the analysis, summarise any interesting findings from your analysis and present your recommendations. This is a technical piece of writing, so the use of tables and/or charts to summarise and present data is strongly advisable. Use a readable font and neutral colours and always keep readability in mind. There is no word limit for the report but it should not exceed 6 pages (including tables and graphs); if you opt to produce a PowerPoint presentation instead, it should not exceed 10 slides.
The post Midlands Rail is a train operating company and is preparing a bid to take over the operation of the Southampton-Birmingham train line for the next 5 years. appeared first on Best Custom Essay Writing Services | EssayBureau.com.
Why Choose HelpHub
Quality Researched Papers
We always make sure that writers follow all your instructions precisely. You can choose your academic level: high school, college/university or professional, and we will assign a writer who has a respective degree.
We have hired a team of professional writers experienced in academic and business writing. Most of them are native speakers and PhD holders able to take care of any assignment you need help with.
If you think we missed something, send your order for a free revision. You have 10 days to submit the order for review after you have received the final document. You can do this yourself after logging into your personal account.
On Time Delivery
All papers are always delivered on time. In case we need more time to master your paper, we may contact you regarding the deadline extension. We will always strive to deliver on time.
Original & Confidential
We use several writing tools checks to ensure that all documents you receive are free from plagiarism. Our editors carefully review all quotations in the text.
Our support agents are available 24 hours a day 7 days a week and committed to providing you with the best customer experience. Get in touch whenever you need any assistance.
Try it now!
How it works?
Follow these simple steps to get your paper done
Place your order
Fill in the order form and provide all details of your assignment.
Proceed with the payment
Choose the payment system that suits you most.
Receive the final file
Once your paper is ready, we will email it to you.
HelpHub Writing Services
No need to work on essay at night. Sleep tight, we will cover your back. We offer all kinds of essay writing services.
No matter what kind of academic paper you need and how urgent you need it, you are welcome to choose your academic level and the type of your paper at an affordable price. We take care of all your paper needs and give a 24/7 customer care support system.
An admission essay is an essay or other written statement by a candidate, often a potential student enrolling in a college, university, or graduate school. You can be rest assurred that through our service we will write the best admission essay for you.
Our academic writers and editors make the necessary changes to your paper so that it is polished. We also format your document by correctly quoting the sources and creating reference lists in the formats APA, Harvard, MLA, Chicago / Turabian.
If you think your paper could be improved, you can request a review. In this case, your paper will be checked by the writer or assigned to an editor. You can use this option as many times as you see fit. This is free because we want you to be completely satisfied.